Futures Studies and System Dynamics for Scenario Building in Digital Entrepreneurship: The Case of Pachuca, Hidalgo

Abstract

Because digital entrepreneurship relies on a shifting network of actors, studying its components separately doesn't work. Tech, culture, economics, society, and government regulations all lock together; a single change in one area instantly forces the rest to adapt.

This study focuses on Pachuca, Hidalgo. The local landscape presents critical challenges, including a digital divide, limited internet connectivity, and public policies that fail to support technological growth. Since previous literature lacks holistic studies, this research fills that gap by mapping out the potential scenarios within the city's digital entrepreneurial ecosystem of Pachuca Hidalgo, Mexico.

Neither qualitative nor quantitative research traditions alone enable exploration of the system's behavior. System dynamics helps researchers track how different variables influence each other using nonlinear feedback loops. When analysts mix this approach with scenario planning, they can build realistic stories with quantitative coherence.

To achieve this, the study uses a step-by-step exploratory design broken into three research phases. 1) Codes and dimensions were identified with their respective co-occurrences. 2) A causal loop diagram was developed to model positive and negative relationships between system dimensions. 3) Two axes of uncertainty emerged from the diagram, forming the basis for five future scenarios of digital entrepreneurship.

The results indicate that the digital entrepreneurship system operates around two feedback nodes: growth factors, which concentrate five positive feedback loops; and barriers, which function as system stabilizers. Two uncertainty axes were identified, resulting in a four-quadrant matrix. An additional scenario was incorporated as a reference trajectory, yielding five future scenarios: trend, utopian, catastrophic, normative, and contrasting. Together, these scenarios serve as a practical instrument for entrepreneurs and decision-makers seeking to design anticipatory strategies that capitalize on the full potential of Pachuca's digital ecosystem.