The Need for a Systemic Thinking-Based Intervention in the Brazilian Space Program in the New Space Era

Abstract

The Brazilian Space Program (PEB), initiated in the 1940s, enabled the development of national infrastructure, human capital, and industrial capacity. However, with the rise of the New Space paradigm—marked by increased private sector participation, venture capital investment, commercialization of space activities, and military interest—Brazil’s governance structures and public policies are still adapting to this new dynamic. Despite its potential, the program's lack of systemic integration limits its strategic effectiveness and capacity to deliver societal and technological outcomes. Systems thinking provides a suitable approach for assessing institutional asymmetries, mapping interdependencies, and analyzing how structural bottlenecks and feedback dynamics contribute to inefficiencies. This lens helps identify where targeted interventions could lead to systemic improvements. The study employs semi-structured interviews with experts from government, academia, and the private sector, combined with analytical tools from systems thinking and system dynamics. A participation vs. power matrix is used to assess the influence and engagement of key stakeholders. At the same time, causal loop diagrams illustrate the importance of sustained public funding in attracting private capital and fostering the growth of space companies. The results highlight the growing role of FINEP – the Brazilian Funding Authority for Studies and Projects – as a key actor in the national space agenda, allocating capital in technological developments within the industry. To overcome governance challenges, the study proposes a systemic redesign of institutional arrangements, including the creation of a dedicated Ministry of Space to coordinate agendas, enhance policy coherence, and foster innovation aligned with the New Space context.