The 2 FEEDBACK LOOP AXIOM: WHY PARTICIPATORY SYSTEMS METHODS FAIL AND ARE INAPPROPRIATE FOR COMPLEX SYSTEM PROBLEMS

Abstract

It has been widely assumed in systems disciplines and systems professional practices that there are no intrinsic limits on individuals’ abilities to mentally understand and address complex systems situations.  This paper describes how this assumption is mistaken and the implication for systems research, systems science science, theories, methods,  and practices

This paper identifies an explicit, biologically based cognitive bound on individuals’ abilities to mentally predict system behaviours and outcomes. It identifies this bound applies when system behaviours are shaped by two or more feedback loops.

The analysis develops through exploring the central and essential role of prediction in addressing system problems, understanding system behaviour, and managing complex systems situations. As part of this exploration, the author draws attention to the existence of a widely held individual subjective delusion that such a bound on predicting systems outcomes does not exist, and does not limit the ability of individuals to understand and predict behaviours and outcomes of such systems regardless of the evidence otherwise.

The author suggests the above faulty assumption and concurrent delusion  has led to systems professionals and others mistakenly claiming to be able understand and make valid decisions about complex systems when they are physically unable to do so.

The implications of this 2-feedback loop limitation on human mental abilities to understand and managed impact several traditional assumptions of systems theories and practices. Firstly, this limitation on individuals’ abilities to mentally understand complex systems, and correctly predict systems behaviours when they derive from 2 or more feedback loops, means it is obviously of no advantage to ask multiple people, who are all incapable of understanding such system and predicting their behaviours if these are shaped by feedback loops beyond the 2-feedback loop boundary.

This, then, obviously defines a boundary on the validity and applicability of participatory and consultative systems methods that ask individuals or groups about their understandings and suggestions for interventions because participants biologically-based lack of ability to correctly predict means such methods are invalid beyond the 2-feedback loop boundary.

Secondly, for the above reason, it is suggested the two-feedback loop boundary provides a more appropriate basis for the definition of complex system and defines the boundary and difference between complex and merely complicated systems.